WASP: Where is my Baygon spray! Will IPL auctions get impacted?

55%, 32%, 42%, 16%, 32%, 11%…. no these are not discount rates. These numbers are predictors which will answer one of the question which many cricket follower could not accurately tell during the game “Who is winning?”

WASP

Sky Sports is using a research from University of Canterbury, a tool to predict the likely number of runs a team in score in first inning and the chances for team batting second to win. This tool is been used for limited overs cricket. This predictor goes by the term W.A.S.P (winning and score predictor). It is developed in University of Canterbury by PhD graduate Dr Scott Brooker and his supervisor Dr Seamus Hogan.

In the Indian-NZ, 50 over one day game today WASP’s % changed drastically as a wicket fell for India.

  • 1st wicket: 51% to 31% after Rohit Sharma got out
  • 2nd wicket: 45% to 29% after Shikar Dhawan got out
  • The last WASP number I recall was 11% when India was 8 wickets down

Warning: WASP is not to be used for betting as it is not a crystal ball view of which team is going to win. But it is a probability or estimate for the batting team.

The models were created based on:

  • Database off all non-shortened ODI and 20-20 games played
  • Only games between top-eight countries since late 2006 (slightly further back for 20-20 games)
  • The first-innings model estimates the additional runs likely to be scored as a function of the number of balls and wickets remaining
  • The second innings model estimates the probability of winning as a function of balls and wickets remaining, runs scored to date, and the target score
  • Estimates constructed using a dynamic programme rather than just fitting curves through the data
  • Ground conditions from historical games taken into account
  • A judgment (recent historical average)  is made on what the average first innings score would be for the average batting team playing the average bowling team in those conditions, and the models’ predictions are normalized around that information
  • It can be seen as a an alternative to the current Duckworth Lewis system for predicting scores after a rain cancellation in the future

But WASP can screw up when: If a batsman retires hurt and may or may not return to the crease (This happened in Feb 2013 one day game between Eng v NZ when Guptill retired hurt and then returned at number 9 and took NZ to victory.  

Some systems were developed earlier. It can be seen here: http://www.cricmetric.com/blog/

Indian Fans see this: http://www.cricmetric.com/team.py?team=India

Cricket has changed a lot since 2008. T20 impact is there on the one day game and test cricket. The cricketers are mentally stronger and the WASP system will also evolve. However I feel the key point is Economics:

  • Using the changes in WASP’s score prediction, the researchers could measure each player’s contribution after every ball
  • Batsmen were awarded points according to how much the WASP’s score prediction changed,
  • A positive contribution by bowlers is measured by a reduction in the WASP
  • Fielders were given proportional points for catches and run-outs depending on the level of difficulty of the chance

Using this analysis, Seamus and Marcus found the following:

  •  An above average batsman will contribute about eight more runs to his team’s innings than a typical batsman
  • An above average bowler will tend to restrict the other team by approximately six more runs than an average bowler
  • An outstanding fielder, however, will on average restrict the score by just two runs (ahem Young legs J , only 2 runs )

So will IPL auctions be effected? Time will tell.

A lecture from the developers, you can watch it here:

A summary:

BeTx8YcCUAAVOT2

 

Note: taken from various sites,  and details accumulated. No copyright violation intended.

Sources:

http://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.in/2012/11/cricket-and-wasp-shameless-self.html

http://offsettingbehaviour.blogspot.co.nz/2013/11/more-cricket-return-of-wasp.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0BgyT-Kq5E

http://www.comsdev.canterbury.ac.nz/rss/news/?feed=news&articleId=632

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/india-vs-new-zealand-odi-wasp-on-twitter-trends/1/338608.html

http://canta.co.nz/columns/economics-with-efsoc-chance-and-cricket/

http://in.news.yahoo.com/winning-score-prediction-working-wasp-050805627.html

http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569240.html

 

Born February 24, 1992, Feilding….and what a CATCH!!!!!!

Bevan Small, has become an instant star in a NZ Big Bash 20-20 game.
He came in as  a 12th man
The opponent partnership at 74 from 64 runs
The opposition score at 81/1

He jumped, flew and played his part in the best assist catch…… of cricket may be. Just watch video and feel amazed.

And yes he was born in Feilding – New Zealand and has two first class games only 🙂

What a catch!!!!

Source:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/newzealand/content/player/440520.html

How to avoid a 3 day defeat – Operation Fevicol and use of BOBBB

In a surprising development today morning 10.00 AM IST, the Indian selectors have given call for two batsman to join the Indian team. These batsman, both 34 years of age and openers have been called in to assist in the new operation – Operation Fevicol. The objective of the operation is stick on the crease, and just stick….keep sticking and eat up balls.

The batsman names  – Akash Chopra  and Shiv Sundar Das.

Their strike rates are among the best in terms of occupying the crease, for Chopu its 34.6, and for Sunder its 38.9. It has been agreed that bringing them in will not avoid defeat, but it is better then losing under three days and take the test to the 5th day.  The Fevicol to be used is the special opener version, and approved by Jhamsi Baand himself.

Till then the bowlers may do some Jadoo (not the Dhoop wala) and a victory can happen. Victory by frustrating the opposition.  And to increase team motivation, instead of yoga everyone has been given a Captain Harddock dictionary of gallis – with BOBBB (billion of blistering blue barnacles) is the team favorite . Others are – Baboons, Blackamoor, Filibuster, Nanny Goat, Rapscallion, Slubberdegullions, Whippersnapper, Zapotecs.

And on other news, they have sent out SOS to Sunny Gavaskar to pad up. India still does not have a test opener of Mackmyra quality like him.  (I am talking of classical nature and non-batsman friendly pitch).

About my Book Baramulla Bomber:
Science Fiction Geopolitical Espionage Thriller.
Quantum Physics meets Ancient Vedas in background of Kashmir and Cricket

Night-watchman – Jagte Raho – To Do or Not to Do

Did India not get the lead in the third day due to Night-Watchman? Was one end of wicket held up and runs dried up?

BBC sports mentions; the night-watchman is a bowler who has a decent-defensive technique. So our Sharma-ji defense is sound. Let us see… In 41 matches he has faced 1303 balls till now, at strike rate of 29.39. This is almost similar to his first class stats.  An argument been given that the night-watchman should be not only have decent defensive technique but also have an ability to make runs or rotate the strike.

Some records of night-watchman (who were bowlers)

  • 1962: Pakistani Nasim-ul-Ghani is the first night-watchman to hit a ton, scoring 101 against England at Lord’s in 1962.
  • 1977: Australia’s Tony Mann was the second when he scored 108 against India at Perth in 1977.
  • 2006: Australia’s Jason Gillespie joined the exclusive group when he notched his maiden Test century (201*) against Bangladesh in Chittagong (which ironically was his last test match for his country)
  • 1999: England fast bowler Alex Tudor almost reached three figures against New Zealand in 1999, getting out at 99
  • Others : Syed Kirmani, Mark Boucher

But is using a night watch-man, a good idea? According to a study done it is not

Teams Using Night-watchman:
Wkts Scored   Higher than Expected Scored   Lower than Expected
1 12 22
2 5 33
3 12 23
Totals 29 78

Six other cases were too close to call. The graphical representation for the study:

The study proves that the night-watchman tactic is a failure. The rate of failure is twice more than a success.

So maybe next time we do not send in a night watchman or send someone like Ashwin up the order. An old anecdote when West-Indies was playing against Australia (I think), to protect Brian Lara, a night-watchman was sent. He got out, then another was sent he also got out. Finally Lara came out and survived the day.

Tomorrows game…wow going to wake up in 4 hours now…and see if we can break a taboo. And Dada, great insights 🙂

And I could not help sharing the following photo. Our own MMS, doing a night-watchman role for our young Prince 😉 (No pun intended Mr. Kapil S)

Source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/cricket/rules_and_equipment/4183598.stm
http://www.theunrealtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/manmohan-nightwatchman.jpg
http://www.sportstats.com.au/nightwatchman.html
www.cricinfo.com