55%, 32%, 42%, 16%, 32%, 11%…. no these are not discount rates. These numbers are predictors which will answer one of the question which many cricket follower could not accurately tell during the game “Who is winning?”
Sky Sports is using a research from University of Canterbury, a tool to predict the likely number of runs a team in score in first inning and the chances for team batting second to win. This tool is been used for limited overs cricket. This predictor goes by the term W.A.S.P (winning and score predictor). It is developed in University of Canterbury by PhD graduate Dr Scott Brooker and his supervisor Dr Seamus Hogan.
In the Indian-NZ, 50 over one day game today WASP’s % changed drastically as a wicket fell for India.
- 1st wicket: 51% to 31% after Rohit Sharma got out
- 2nd wicket: 45% to 29% after Shikar Dhawan got out
- The last WASP number I recall was 11% when India was 8 wickets down
Warning: WASP is not to be used for betting as it is not a crystal ball view of which team is going to win. But it is a probability or estimate for the batting team.
The models were created based on:
- Database off all non-shortened ODI and 20-20 games played
- Only games between top-eight countries since late 2006 (slightly further back for 20-20 games)
- The first-innings model estimates the additional runs likely to be scored as a function of the number of balls and wickets remaining
- The second innings model estimates the probability of winning as a function of balls and wickets remaining, runs scored to date, and the target score
- Estimates constructed using a dynamic programme rather than just fitting curves through the data
- Ground conditions from historical games taken into account
- A judgment (recent historical average) is made on what the average first innings score would be for the average batting team playing the average bowling team in those conditions, and the models’ predictions are normalized around that information
- It can be seen as a an alternative to the current Duckworth Lewis system for predicting scores after a rain cancellation in the future
But WASP can screw up when: If a batsman retires hurt and may or may not return to the crease (This happened in Feb 2013 one day game between Eng v NZ when Guptill retired hurt and then returned at number 9 and took NZ to victory.
Some systems were developed earlier. It can be seen here: http://www.cricmetric.com/blog/
Indian Fans see this: http://www.cricmetric.com/team.py?team=India
Cricket has changed a lot since 2008. T20 impact is there on the one day game and test cricket. The cricketers are mentally stronger and the WASP system will also evolve. However I feel the key point is Economics:
- Using the changes in WASP’s score prediction, the researchers could measure each player’s contribution after every ball
- Batsmen were awarded points according to how much the WASP’s score prediction changed,
- A positive contribution by bowlers is measured by a reduction in the WASP
- Fielders were given proportional points for catches and run-outs depending on the level of difficulty of the chance
Using this analysis, Seamus and Marcus found the following:
- An above average batsman will contribute about eight more runs to his team’s innings than a typical batsman
- An above average bowler will tend to restrict the other team by approximately six more runs than an average bowler
- An outstanding fielder, however, will on average restrict the score by just two runs (ahem Young legs J , only 2 runs )
So will IPL auctions be effected? Time will tell.
A lecture from the developers, you can watch it here:
Note: taken from various sites, and details accumulated. No copyright violation intended.